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God Gave Physics the Easy Problems:

Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World

University of Toronto, The Ohio State University, University of Toronto and University of California at Berkeley

RICHARD NED LEBOW

University of Toronto, The Ohio State University, University of Toronto and University of California at Berkeley

JANICE GROSS STEIN

University of Toronto, The Ohio State University, University of Toronto and University of California at Berkeley

STEVEN WEBER

University of Toronto, The Ohio State University, University of Toronto and University of California at Berkeley

For conceptual and empirical reasons the quest for predictive theory rests on a mistaken analogy between physical and social phenomena. Evolutionary biology is a more productive analogy for social science. We explore the value of this analogy in its `hard' and `soft' versions, and examine the implications of both for theory and research in International Relations. We develop the case for forward `tracking' of International Relations on the basis of local and general knowledge as a constructive response to the problems we identify in backward-looking attempts to build deductive, nomothetic theory.

Key Words: analogies to science • ethnic conflict • forecasting • privatization of security • proliferation • scenarios

European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 6, No. 1, 43-76 (2000)
DOI: 10.1177/1354066100006001003


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